Healthcare: A look into the future

BT’s Ian Neild takes a look at how healthcare could evolve over the coming years.

It’s a well-known fact. We’re all living longer. Part of the reason for this is that as medical technologies improve, we find that there are more and more things we can fix – all helping to prolong our lives...

But with the cost of healthcare spiralling and shortages of medical staff predicted there is likely to be a huge and increasing strain on resources in the future.

So, is there another way? Can machine intelligence, sensors and robotics offer some of the services we receive from doctors, dentists and surgeons today?

• We are already starting to see the promise of ‘lab on chip’ sensors where a single drop of blood can be scanned for a whole range of problems. Though still in development, the promise of a reduction in the time and cost to do point-of-presence tests has many advantages such as rapid results, smaller samples required and no supply chain for sending samples.

• Research is underway to print replacement body parts. While a whole femur may not be replaced, it may be possible to create replacement bone which can be grafted onto existing bone. Artificial organs are also a possibility, with modified printers already able to print human cells in precise patterns.

• What if robots could be employed to complete simple surgery? If they did, it would free-up highly skilled surgeons to focus on more complex procedures. Understandably, there might be some nervousness about machines operating on people. And yet, it’s worth considering that surgeons performing close-up work today wear ‘microscopes’ to let them see in finer detail. They may use micro manipulators to allow them to do finer movements. So, in one way, the machines are already operating on us - they just have a human at the wheel.

• Robots may also help in drug delivery. Visiting a pharmacy for drugs is commonplace in the developed world but are we ready for drugs delivered by air autonomously? Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) have already been shown as capable of travelling between distant points, therefore, they could be used to deliver drugs and transport blood samples. Flight times would be short and so problems with temperature control would be reduced. A central refrigerated drug store could deliver drugs over a very wide area and blood samples could be flown to central labs efficiently for testing.

• Technology could also be used to improve the way doctors keep tabs on our health. Multimedia patient records would be a useful addition using cameras and microphones to record how conditions have changed over time. Instead of subjective measurements, it would be possible to see and hear how a treatment is actually working.

• More and more people are turning to the internet and self-help groups for information on their condition. In the past, the medical profession had access to all the knowledge and the patient had none. Today, that balance is shifting as patients have access to a wide range of information. But it can throw up at least one potential problem. This ‘self-diagnosis’ has led to a growing number of people suffering from ‘Cyberchondria’ – a recognised phenomenon based on hypochondria.

• That said, as users search the internet to find out more about their ailments, search engines could be used to pinpoint the first sign of pandemics etc. In an attempt to self-diagnose, the population could be flagging up potential health problems. If enough people enter the same symptoms, it may be the first sign of a problem that needs to be acted upon. As the internet address has a fixed location, this analysis may even be broken down into geographical areas helping to spot outbreaks. This same technique could also be used to analyse sales of medicines. If a supermarket or pharmacy notices a sudden increase in the sale of certain medicines, which may indicate a problem.
  

Ian Neild is a disruptive futurist who presents on technology trends and social / business impacts. He writes the BT technology timeline, which lists possible technology changes and their impact. Currently he is working on an area dubbed the ‘Internet of Things’ within BT's foresight team and working on his doctorate. Ian.neild@bt.com