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Risk factors
The business of BT is affected by a
number of factors, not all of which are wholly within BT’s control.
Although many of the factors influencing BT’s performance are
macro economic and likely to affect the performance of businesses
generally, some aspects of BT’s business make it particularly
sensitive to certain areas of business risk. This section highlights
some of those specific areas. However, it does not purport to be an
extensive analysis of the factors affecting the business and some
risks may be unknown to us and other risks, currently believed to
be immaterial, could turn out to be material. All of these could materially
adversely affect our business, turnover, profits, assets, liquidity
and capital resources. They should also be considered in connection
with the forward looking statements in this document and the cautionary
statement regarding forward-looking
statements.
If BT’s activities are subject to significant price and other regulatory controls, its market share, competitive position and future profitability may be affected |
Most of BT’s fixed network activities
in the UK are subject to significant regulatory controls. The controls
regulate, among other things, the prices BT may charge for many of
its services and the extent to which it has to provide services to
its competitors. In recent years, the effect of these controls has
been to cause BT to reduce its prices. BT cannot assure its shareholders
that the regulatory authorities will not increase the severity of
the price controls, nor extend the services to which controls apply
(including any new services that BT may offer in the future), nor
extend the services which it has to provide its competitors. These
controls may adversely affect BT’s market share, the severity
of competition and its future profitability. During 2004 and 2005
Ofcom has been undertaking a strategic review of the UK telecommunications
market in order to formulate the principles on which it can base its
regulatory decisions in the future. This review is scheduled to be
completed in 2005. It is not possible to predict the ultimate outcome
or implications for BT of Ofcom’s review. Further details on
the regulatory framework in which BT operates can be found in “Business
Review – regulation, competition and prices”.
BT faces strong competition in UK fixed network services |
BT continues to have a significant market share in some aspects of UK fixed network services. In particular, in the 2005 financial year we estimate we had a market share of 64% of consumer calls and 42% of business calls in the UK. Regulators have promoted competition in this area by allowing BT’s competitors to site equipment in or
adjacent to its exchanges (local loop unbundling), to make it easier for BT’s customers to route some or all of their calls over competitors’ networks (carrier pre-selection) and by the introduction of a wholesale access product (wholesale line rental). Reduction in BT’s market share in the fixed network may lead to a fall in BT’s turnover and an
adverse effect on profitability. Unlike its competitors, BT continues to be obliged by the current regulatory regime to serve customers in the UK, whether or not such provision of service is economic, and the competitive measures described above may have the effect of accelerating the diversion of its more profitable existing customers
without it being able to reduce its costs commensurately. There is also competition for voice and data traffic volumes between fixed network operators and those operators offering VoIP (Voice over IP) and mobile services. These changes in the regulatory environment and ensuing increased competition on BT’s fixed network may cause
adverse effects on its business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects.
BT’s business is dependent on the ability to exploit technological advances quickly and successfully |
BT operates in an industry with a recent history of fast technological changes. It expects that new products and technologies will continue to emerge and that existing products and technologies will develop further. BT needs to continually develop its services and products to exploit those next generation technologies. However, BT cannot
predict the actual effect of these technological changes on its business or on its ability to provide competitive services. For example there is evidence of substitution by customers using mobile phones for day-to-day voice calls in place of making such calls over the fixed network. Additionally, some calls are now being routed over the internet in
place of the traditional switched network. If these trends accelerate, BT’s fixed network assets may be used uneconomically and its investment in these assets may not be recovered through profits on fixed-network calls and line rentals. The complexity of the 21st Century Network may also result in delays to the delivery of expected benefits.
Impairment write-downs may be incurred and margins may decline if fixed costs cannot be reduced in line with falling turnover.
BT is carrying out a transformation strategy, including the targeting of significant growth in new wave business areas |
BT has a strategy to transform its business. This may result in changes to its products, services, markets and culture. If the group’s transformation strategy is unsuccessful there is a risk that the future turnover and profitability will decline. In particular BT has targeted significant growth in new business areas, such as broadband, mobility and
Information and Communications Technology (ICT) solutions. In view of the likely level of competition and uncertainties regarding the level of economic activity, there can be no certainty that BT will meet its growth targets in these areas, with a consequential impact on future turnover and profitability.
BT’s businesses may be adversely affected if they fail to perform on major contracts |
BT has entered into a number of complex and high value services contracts with customers. Failure to manage and meet BT’s commitments under these contracts may lead to a reduction in BT’s future turnover, profitability and cash generation.
BT’s businesses may be adversely affected if their networks or systems experience any significant failures or interruptions |
BT’s businesses are dependent on their ability to transfer substantial volumes of data speedily and without interruption. Any significant failure or interruption of such data transfer due to factors outside their control could have a material adverse effect on the businesses and their results from operations. BT has a business continuity strategy
designed to deal with such catastrophic events, including for example major terrorist action, industrial action, extreme virus attack, hurricane or flooding, that may impact the ability to maintain an effective service to customers. A failure to deliver that strategy may result in a material loss and there can be no assurance that material adverse
events will not occur.
Declining investment returns and longer life expectancy may result in the funding cost of the defined benefit pension scheme becoming a significant burden on the financial resources of BT |
The defined benefit pension scheme, the BT Pension Scheme (BTPS), was closed to new members on 31 March 2001 and has been replaced by a defined contribution scheme (BTRP). The latest full triennial actuarial valuation of the BTPS was completed as at 31 December 2002. As a result, BT agreed to make normal contributions of 12.2%
of pensionable pay and annual deficiency payments of £232 million. This will apply until the next triennial actuarial valuation is completed as at 31 December 2005. In March 2004 a £380 million prepayment of deficiency contributions was made, representing most of the deficiency contributions for the 2005 and 2006 financial years. The
results of future scheme valuations will be impacted by the future investment market performance, interest and inflation rates and the general trend towards longer life expectancy, all of which are outside the control of BT. In the event that investment returns decline or life expectancy increases, the cash funding cost to BT may increase and
may have a significant effect on the financial resources of BT.
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